COVID-19 Virus

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

I'm not downplaying the seriousness of this coronavirus, as any virus is a serious matter, but tens of thousands are hospitalized or die each year in the US and world-wide from the flu yet I've not seen the fear about that compared to the fear being shown this new virus. It's symptoms are very similar to the flu. It is now known a person not showing any symptoms can unknowingly have it and can pass it on.

The regular flu doesn't cross human-animal lines and this virus is is a member of a viral family that is notoriously deadly and prone to mutations--- more than the standard flu---the risk is not so much due to the current symptoms, but the potential for rapid spread through thousands of people which leads to viral transformations.

Also the regulator influenza are only 0.5% fatal to the very young and very old, this new strain is 3-5% fatal to adults, with 20% seriously ill with life threatening pneumonia. Statistically that's a big difference. It's 6 times more deadly ( at 3%) and up 10 times more deadly at the high end( at 5%)

Ok I just did the math, and now I more worried?!

I still think( not as sure) we are ok, that this isn't "the Big " influenza. I think it does show how interconnected we all are, and how swiftly a virus can move through the world. We also aren't getting all the facts due to censorship from government. Even our government doesn't have to release info from states that have cases if the state health department doesn't want to. I find that upsetting.

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

So I found this, source seems ok, but who knows
January 31, 2020
Source:
"The Lancet
Summary:
New modeling research estimates that up to 75,800 individuals in the Chinese city of Wuhan may have been infected with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as of Jan. 25, 2020. The authors caution that given the lack of a robust and detailed timeline of records of suspected, probable, and confirmed cases and close contacts, the true size of the epidemic and its pandemic potential remains unclear."
"The researchers estimate that in the early stages of the Wuhan outbreak (from December 1, 2019 to January 25, 2020) each person infected with 2019-nCoV could have infected up to 2-3 other individuals on average, and that the epidemic doubled in size every 6.4 days. During this period, up to 75,815 individuals could have been infected in Wuhan."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200131114753.htm

 

[noodles123]

Re: Wuhan virus

It is looking more and more like China was correct in its assertion that the virus is contagious before symptoms appear:

"New evidence from Germany does support the theory. A case report published in the New England Journal of Medicine on January 30 detailed how a woman from Shanghai traveled to Germany for a business trip between January 19 to January 22. She had no symptoms of coronavirus during the time and only became sick on her flight back to China. She was officially diagnosed with 2019-nCoV on January 26.

But on January 24, a businessman who met with the women on January 20 and 21 developed symptoms of coronavirus, including a sore throat, chills, muscle soreness, fever, and cough. He went back to work on January 27 and later tested positive for 2019-nCoV. On January 28, three of the businessman’s coworkers tested positive for the virus and only one of them had come into contact with the woman from Shanghai.

This definitely implies that people can spread 2019-nCoV before they have symptoms, which is unusual. “We’ve never seen that with a coronavirus before,” Dr. Adalja says."

 

[bug_n_flock]

Re: Wuhan virus

Well that's unsettling. This whole thing is pretty freaky. And my family still isn't taking anything seriously. They don't even want us to send them masks. My mom is saying "oh I got thru the swine flu epidemic and that was fine so I'll just grab a few staples at the shop and I'll be fine".



I told them they are welcome here even if our cell tower goes down and they haven't heard from us in a while. If things locally go south we plan to purposefully block the culverts on our bridge and essentially turn it into a dam, blocking both the bridge and the ford. If we do that we plan to hide some airhorns or something so our family can "ring a doorbell" from the other side of the creek.



But for now we don't feel the need to do anything that drastic, just limiting our contact with people and trying to avoid travel, or "large" towns in the area. Just thinking up a plan for if needed, while hoping and praying that it doesn't come anywhere near to that. I HOPE this all peters out and we look like big ole fools soon, but always better to have a plan than to not have one.

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

Well north Florida is having an influenza surge. I went to my parents, and we stopped in Walmart, only to be coughs and sneezes all around. Then my mom tells me one if her aquatints ( in her mind 70's) is in the hospital with flu that turned into pneumonia. And that the hospital was full, so she was in an oxygen tent in the hall!!! I asked why is our hospital full?;?! My mom didn't know....

But not want I want to hear right now I tell you! I won't be going to the store again anytime soon!

 

[Squeekmouse]

Re: Wuhan virus

Squeekmouse, there are still N95s available out your way? My brother lives right around near you and I worry he isn't taking this seriously enough. Also, we still have N95's at our local Lowes. We could send you some if you want.

Thank you so much Bug! I think they have some at the hardware store nearby so my husband and I are going to pick some up tomorrow. We just got a big box of pellets for the boys and we've got some emergency foods on the way for us as well. I work from home, so I only really go out around people to go to the gym, where I'm keeping away from people and using hand sanitizer/washing hands like a crazy person... and keeping my eyes open for if I see coughing and need to start working out from home instead... I don't want to go hermit and blow things out of proportion but on the other hand I am cautious and a bit scared... especially with the first case in the US of someone catching it from another HERE... not far from home... even closer to my gym... sigh...

I know the regular old Flu is more likely to be the danger, and that's why I always get a flu shot... and why I take precautions around that as well.. and for all the same reasons others have said I am extra concerned about this new thing...

It's awfully nice to have my friends here on the PF who I can hang out with and talk all I want without worrying about catching something, right?

Take care all, take precautions, and then take heart that what will be will be and try not to worry too much about things we can't do anything about.

 

[bug_n_flock]

Re: Wuhan virus

Today we are headed to the rescue to borrow their trailer and pick up 20 bales of hay for the Butters. Also the Chewy order arrived yesterday so we will be picking it up from the rescue too. Then all we need is a few trips to the local feed shop to stock way up on feed, and a delivery of firewood, maybe some lumber and nails. We may or may not round out our supplies at the 7 mile away town's tiny little grocery store.



On a light note, laugh with us about the commonly stocked items at that grocery store. The "have" a produce section, but usually you can only get bagged iceburg lettuce and maybe some tomatoes or something(for a little while last year they had baby spinach off and on), but you can buy #10 cans of just about whatever. Plus, take your pick of the different brands of lard! 2 brands for 25 lb tubs, 3 for 8 lb, and a whole lot of 1 lb tubs. MMMMM, lard. Lmao I don't understand who their customer base is. We were thinking maybe church ladies for cooking supper? But who knows!

 

[SailBoat]

Re: Wuhan virus

Aaaa, county living!
What's for dinner: Fried Anything... Cattle to grasshoppers!
If you're a tiny town store, you carry what the 'big town stores don't.'
Also, big cans work well with big pot cooking! Extra is called planned-overs!
I love small town stores!

 

[Jasmine333]

Re: Wuhan virus

Has anyone heard how this virus got started? I read there was a market illegally trading wild animals. Probably kept them in unsanitary conditions. I'm not sure transmission between people is necessarily the only power this thing has to operate. It may be carried around in the air, or lie dormant on clothing and objects.

 

[noodles123]

Re: Wuhan virus

Has anyone heard how this virus got started? I read there was a market illegally trading wild animals. Probably kept them in unsanitary conditions. I'm not sure transmission between people is necessarily the only power this thing has to operate. It may be carried around in the air, or lie dormant on clothing and objects.

There is a lot of uncertainty--- they first thought exposure to snakes or bats, or even a certain type of fish.
They thought they pinned it to a market in Wuhan, but now they are not even certain that the market was the origin...

It kind of reminds me of a viral version of "typhoid mary" (Google that for an interesting read).

 

[bug_n_flock]

Re: Wuhan virus

The alleged "patient zero" in china had not visited the market. There is a bsl-4 lab in wuhan... maybe escaped? IDK, there are a TON of rumors and speculation flying around.

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

We do know it a bat coroana virus that mutated,
"2019-nCoV is a betacoronavirus, like MERS and SARs, all of which have their origins in bats. The sequences from U.S. patients are similar to the one that China initially posted, suggesting a likely single, recent emergence of this virus from an animal reservoir."

"Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are common in many different species of animals, including camels, cattle, cats, and bats. Rarely, animal coronaviruses can infect people and then spread between people such as with MERS, SARS, and now with 2019-nCoV."

Could be from a population of bats living in the area, or could be contact with bats used as a protein source I guess.

I can share as very young child we visited faimly in Ohio, we all got very very ill with gastro intestinal symptoms. It was from bats living in their well. I have no idea if it was bacterial, viral, or parasite. So bats could have a colony some place that led to this..

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

My prayers to all who are suffering. My prayers for containment. My prayers that we unite and not divide. My prayers that China allows CDC and WHO to consult and add their experience in pandemics.

"The Wuhan coronavirus spreading from China is now likely to become a pandemic that circles the globe, according to many of the world’s leading infectious disease experts.

The prospect is daunting. A pandemic — an ongoing epidemic on two or more continents — may well have global consequences, despite the extraordinary travel restrictions and quarantines now imposed by China and other countries, including the United States.

Scientists do not yet know how lethal the new coronavirus is, however, so there is uncertainty about how much damage a pandemic might cause. But there is growing consensus that the pathogen is readily transmitted between humans.

The Wuhan coronavirus is spreading more like influenza, which is highly transmissible, than like its slow-moving viral cousins, SARS and MERS, scientists have found.

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“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.

“But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.”

In the last three weeks, the number of lab-confirmed cases has soared from about 50 in China to more than 17,000 in at least 23 countries; there have been more than 360 deaths.

But various epidemiological models estimate that the real number of cases is 100,000 or even more. While that expansion is not as rapid as that of flu or measles, it is an enormous leap beyond what virologists saw when SARS and MERS emerged."

 

[Inger]

Re: Wuhan virus

Today we are headed to the rescue to borrow their trailer and pick up 20 bales of hay for the Butters. Also the Chewy order arrived yesterday so we will be picking it up from the rescue too. Then all we need is a few trips to the local feed shop to stock way up on feed, and a delivery of firewood, maybe some lumber and nails. We may or may not round out our supplies at the 7 mile away town's tiny little grocery store.



On a light note, laugh with us about the commonly stocked items at that grocery store. The "have" a produce section, but usually you can only get bagged iceburg lettuce and maybe some tomatoes or something(for a little while last year they had baby spinach off and on), but you can buy #10 cans of just about whatever. Plus, take your pick of the different brands of lard! 2 brands for 25 lb tubs, 3 for 8 lb, and a whole lot of 1 lb tubs. MMMMM, lard. Lmao I don't understand who their customer base is. We were thinking maybe church ladies for cooking supper? But who knows!

Lard is excellent in handmade soap, if you aren’t worried about it being vegan. Makes a nice hard bar with good lather.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

Today we are headed to the rescue to borrow their trailer and pick up 20 bales of hay for the Butters. Also the Chewy order arrived yesterday so we will be picking it up from the rescue too. Then all we need is a few trips to the local feed shop to stock way up on feed, and a delivery of firewood, maybe some lumber and nails. We may or may not round out our supplies at the 7 mile away town's tiny little grocery store.



On a light note, laugh with us about the commonly stocked items at that grocery store. The "have" a produce section, but usually you can only get bagged iceburg lettuce and maybe some tomatoes or something(for a little while last year they had baby spinach off and on), but you can buy #10 cans of just about whatever. Plus, take your pick of the different brands of lard! 2 brands for 25 lb tubs, 3 for 8 lb, and a whole lot of 1 lb tubs. MMMMM, lard. Lmao I don't understand who their customer base is. We were thinking maybe church ladies for cooking supper? But who knows!

Lard is excellent in handmade soap, if you aren’t worried about it being vegan. Makes a nice hard bar with good lather.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Can be used as a candle, just stick a sick in it, or use in an oil lamp, can be used to lubrication in mechanical part, added to beeswax to condition leather..

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

This is not good news! So far birds only I think.

"China is now dealing with another disease outbreak — this one mostly affecting animals, but also potentially deadly among people.

The Ministry of Agriculture said late Saturday that a fresh outbreak of a lethal form of influenza had been found in poultry in the southern province of Hunan, and that officials had ordered the slaughter of 17,828 chickens.

China has previously dealt with several bird flu outbreaks. In the new case, the H5N1 bird flu virus was found at a farm in the city of Shaoyang. The farm had 7,850 chickens, and more than half have died from the bird flu, the ministry said. It called the strain “highly pathogenic.”

 

[bug_n_flock]

Re: Wuhan virus

Oh boy that's good news (sarcasm).



11 cases in the US now. That number is rising too quick for comfort.


We have some lard(I think an 8 lb tub) we got for soapmaking but never got around to. We are planning on going to the local grocery shop Monday or Tuesday to round out our supplies and will be picking up probably some more lard for soapmaking and/or cooking(never cooked with it before, but apparently it is good in chili and refried beans, etc. Shrug).


Picked up the Chewy order and hay today. The farm we got the hay from was absolutely stunning, and filled with friendly dogs who apparently were strays that keep getting brought home by "Earl". Who is Earl? Why, a big old Anatolian Shepherd who belongs to the Amish up the road from that faarm. He just kinda wanders around saying hi to all the neighbors lol. The people told us the only way to get him to stay away is to give him a bath, and he won't visit for a week. Haha


It is surreal how little any of the locals know about the virus, almost like it doesn't exist. Meanwhile we won't even drive to a city of 7,000 any more.

 

[LaManuka]

Re: Wuhan virus

Aaaaaaaand then you’ve got people who know they’re sick but they go to work anyway. Case in point: new girl had her first day on the job at hubby’s work today and she came in still suffering from the ‘flu. I know she’s between a rock and a hard place it being her first day and all, but my hubby has a chronic heart condition, not to mention whatever else her new co-workers may have plus everything that’s going on right now! Thanks a lot!!

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

Lamanku, I hope Mr. Lorikeets is ok, no flu allowed!

More data. New virus, 2-3% fatal, ( maybe lower or higher as better grasp on it) . 1918 influenza 5% fatal. For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu is less than 0.01% (1 death per every 10,000 cases)[4].

Preliminary study providing a temptative 3% estimate for case fatality rate

A preliminary study published on The Lancet on January 24 [3] provides an early estimation of 3% for the overall case fatality rate. Below we show an extract (highlights added for the relevant data and observations):

Of the 41 patients in this cohort, 22 (55%) developed severe dyspnoea and 13 (32%) required admission to an intensive care unit, and six died.

Hence, the case-fatality proportion in this cohort is approximately 14.6%, and the overall case fatality proportion appears to be closer to 3%.

However, both of these estimates should be treated with great caution because not all patients have concluded their illness (ie, recovered or died) and the true number of infections and full disease spectrum are unknown.

Importantly, in emerging viral infection outbreaks the case-fatality ratio is often overestimated in the early stages because case detection is highly biased towards the more severe cases.

As further data on the spectrum of mild or asymptomatic infection becomes available, one case of which was documented by Chan and colleagues, the case-fatality ratio is likely to decrease.

Nevertheless, the 1918 influenza pandemic is estimated to have had a case-fatality ratio of less than 5% but had an enormous impact due to widespread transmission, so there is no room for complacency.

 

[bug_n_flock]

Re: Wuhan virus

An entire family was at the grocery store coughing today, including a little girl who had to have been 7 at the oldest. WHY WASN'T THE LITTLE GIRL HOME RESTING? IDK why they thought the entire family needed to go to the small town grocery store, but they did. It was early afternoon, too. So the little girl was probably home sick, unless all the schools are still closed due to illness(haven't checked). The mom obviously felt self concious because she loudly declared she "must have something cought in her throat" after a bout of coughing she failed to stifle. The dad didn't seem to be coughing, why couldn't sick mom stay HOME with sick kid and the two of them rest? And then they were hanging around coughing in the combined bakery/deli/hot bar section of the store!! Ugggghhh people are gross! If the Wuhan virus gets out here there will be no stopping it in this area. EVERYONE is gonna get sick. One guy stocking the shelves was wearing a surgical mask. Smart guy, we will be masking up from now on while in public. Not for the Wuhan virus, just whatever is going around everywhere here. Yick!