COVID-19 Virus

[charmedbyekkie]

Re: Wuhan virus

Wow charmed talk about a classic case of management having their heads wedged right up their collective fundamental orifices! Productivity at all costs?! I’m all too familiar with the type unfortunately. I hope you’re able to stay safe up there!

Unfortunately it's very much 'expat ignorance' in this particular case.

To give better context, most 'local' shopping malls are now implementing entrance checkpoints that scan your temperature before letting you in, but the tourist/expat shopping malls aren't doing this. The number of people wearing faces masks while commuting on public transport went from something like 1:20 (pre-virus) to almost half the people during peak hours wearing them.

You really have to be a tourist or living a cushy expat lifestyle (not living in the local neighbourhoods, not taking public transport, no local friends, etc) to be this oblivious.


The fact that one of the top banks shut down their corporate office (and the fact that the infected floor is the same floor we would go visit them) should have been clear enough.



Tbh, this is a massive hit to the local economy. Tomorrow, Parliament will be announcing the Budget with support for everyday people as well as companies.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/help-in-budget-for-families-firms-to-tackle-virus-fallout

Less people are eating out, so F&Bs are hit bad. Less people are out leisure shopping, so those stores are also hit. Less people taking taxi and Grab (our equivalent of Uber), so the government is working with local companies to support the income loss (https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...ckage-help-taxi-private-hire-drivers-12431086) - many families rely on the sole breadwinner being a Grab driver, so this is desperately needed.

Imagine S$77 million dollars (55mil USD / 51mil Euro) just for the taxi, private-hire drivers... Can you imagine the money needed for other sectors?

Our tourists are 20-30% from Mainland China, which means we're minus 20-30% of the tourism income. On top of that, many countries are issuing warnings to their citizens, advising not to visit Singapore (tbh, they should advise that for this entire region - we just happen to have a better system that tracks down potential cases, whereas others just wait for symptoms to pop up). So our tourism is also taking a huge hit.

I worry about the people who don't have the finances to tide them over sudden drop in income. Manpower for healthcare and social is strained with this. And sometimes, tossing money doesn't solve everything.

 

[bug_n_flock]

Re: Wuhan virus

How quickly the situation there changed...! Stay safe and healthy! Trust your judgement on what is and isn't safe. We are all thinking about and praying for you.

 

[Scott]

Re: Wuhan virus

Here's how Singapore is currently handling cases that have identical symptoms but are unlikely to be COVID-19: https://www.mothership.sg/2020/02/ncid-experience-suspected-covid-19/





Just need to vent about work and managing COVID-19:

My upper management suddenly changed last week, and the new management is completely out of touch with what is going on the ground (or with other companies for that matter).

We literally had an email from them, when our previous management prompted them for contingency plans, and the upper management said to just buy hand sanitiser.... Nothing about the fact that our clients can only do video calls, that practically all other companies (including our clients) are working in shifts (home shift, office shift) or completely working remote from home, that a significant part of our work involves talking one-on-one with strangers on a regular basis....

During the management change meeting, one of the upper management instructed us to wash our hands frequently, then proceeded to cough directly into their hands.... No other measures to be taken. Nevermind that all other places have increased their cleaning - cleaners in some places are working 16 hour shifts in Singapore now.

The scary part is that all our overseas work was postponed or switched to remote alternatives. And because Indonesia has not reported a single case (because they don't have any system in place), new management wants to start sending us for all the Indonesia work since local work is looking like it might be postponed. None of us want to go. We've all agreed it is unsafe to go to a country in this region that is not even showing a semblance of participating in reporting their numbers and safety measures.

The new management made a comment about their employees in China who are now remote working, saying that they like this because their employees' productivity has increased even though "life isn't fun there". *cue crickets*



I've been running around the office with F10, spraying in between our interviewees. When I thought I might have been exposed to a case (long story, but I didn't have any symptoms), I was conducting interviews with a face mask on (smh). I doubt management understands that doctors are now giving 5 days of MC (doctor mandated sick leave) instead of the typical 1 day, and no doubt management will be deducting from our sick leave even though the government says to stay home if you have a smallest hint of any symptom.

Excellent link, testimonial of Joyce Chan illustrative of professional medical assessment.

So sad your upper management team is shortsighted. I hope your best practices protect you from potential illness.

 

[ParrotGenie]

Re: Wuhan virus

It not just the coronavirus mortality rate concern about? The fact they are pretty much completely shut down and just starting to slowly reopen for the mortality rate they were trying to claim earlier was only 2% and in a large scale quarantine? It makes no sense that China would not shutter factories if coronavirus MORTALITY was really only 2% of the total that was infected.

You have a huge secondary cost associated with the large scale government mandated quarantine, as people dying from not being able to leave house, or get medical care and food supply is critically short over there? Then of course the ripple effect to the their local and the global economy. It only makes sense if the numbers are much higher? You have to have people working, otherwise society collapses, so we accept the cost of deaths related to a example the flu here in the US. If numbers are actually to be believed, which I don't buy for a second, then China cost more damage then it was worth, you would actually have fewer deaths by not quarantine at those numbers? It doesn't add up at all?

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

More press as the cover up in deaths and severity gains traction. The lag time in weeks before symptoms appear, and then taking week or longer to develop sever symptom ( if you do) makes to understand the impact and seriousness of this new virus difficult. But my heart breaks for the millions of people under their third week of lockdown, how this all must be effecting mind , body, and heart.
From Fox news.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/lew...heres-how-china-is-making-the-situation-worse

"In order for China's ruling Communist Party to have responded to COVID-19 this drastically, the death toll would first have had to exceed local officials’ capacity to cover it up, and then also convinced the nation’s top officials that it represents an existential threat."

"The severity of the Chinese government’s actual response to COVID-19 is a more reliable indicator than the disease’s publicly acknowledged tally. While admitting to just 17 deaths from the virus, the party quarantined a region of about 60 million people. This decision guaranteed multibillion-dollar economic losses."

I posted this earlier, a multii BILLION loss....
Plus they should have many more cases and deaths if this followed seasonal influenza numbers, but the new virus is more infective, and more deadly even if they stick to the 2% mortality rate. The SARS coronavirus and the MERS coronavirus were 10% and 30 % mortality. There is much science speculation that COVID19 is trending at 14% mortality, which would make since with the other coronavirus mortality rates. But the officials are still saying 2%-3% right now. Though they do admit 20% who are infected will develop sever symptoms, requiring hospitalized and/ or ICU care...

WHO said they will be taking over reporting, I'm not sure if that means China reported or not.

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

"I think it is likely we will see a global pandemic. If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion is asymptomatic, I can't give a good number"
Prof. Marc Lipsitch
Prof. of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health
Head, Harvard Ctr. Communicable Disease Dynamics
Feb. 14, 2020
"Why do I think a pandemic is likely? The infection is in many parts of China and many countries in the world, with meaningful numbers of secondary transmissions. The scale is much larger than SARS for example (where the US had many introductions and no known onward transmission)

Why do I think 40-70% infected? Simple math models with oversimple assumptions would predict far more than that given the R0 estimates in the 2-3 range (80-90%). Making more realistic assumptions about mixing, perhaps a little help from seasonality, brings the numbers down.

Pandemic flu in 1968 was estimated to _symptomatically_ infect 40% of the population, and in 1918 30%. Those likely had R0 less than COVID-19. Below is from https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425

WHO makes an important response to the above. Stating that predictions have value, but often predicted isn't what happens.

 

[SailBoat]

Re: Wuhan virus

In going back over the early history of this virus and the spread lines from a very small base before spreading to the wild meat market. The extensive exposure at that market and then into all corners of Wuhan... The Boom Factor!

CDC's early statements of testing methods available in a couple of weeks with anti-virus shots in the four to five week, followed with volume quickly. That has extended with it being a few months into the future, with volume following. That heavily implies that this bug is far more than a naturally evolved variate. Its Very Different from Nature!

This has the hallmarks of a Weaponized Virus. Whether this thing creeped out of the Biochem Lab near site zero, was carried-out or with malus set loose really doesn't matter at this point. The Monster is out of the Bottle!

Who has pre-staged, for rapid assembly, two, possible three 150 bed hospitals that was stated to be ready in 3 days. Well, they, in fact had been a mire 18 hours short-on the build time. This is a very important point as if you really think about 150 room hospital complete with all wiring and piping, in the concrete floor, side walls, ceiling and roof to support a hospital in that short of time. That requires 'everything' pre-staged just behind the curtain with the vast majority preassembled... FYI: Even the monitoring equipment was on-site!!! That Screams, 'they' knew something very bad was about to happen!

At this point, the World Governments are rapidly picking-up on the likely size of this Monster and that there is growing concern as to whether this Monster will ease-up as warmer weather comes to the Great White North...

Thank-you to those of you who first raised the alarm and have provided leading edge documentation far ahead of World News Groups who are still waking up to the seriousness of this Monster.

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

If you go to the CDC web page , they are preparing schools, hospital, web , staging, and urging doctors to test all sever illness for COVID-19 regardless of exposure history.

There continues to be 60 people in 42 states under investigation, that have symptoms. This number hasn't changed in 3 weeks, making this person, strongly believe these are positive cases.
As unless things change state health departmens do not have to release to the public positive cases in their states.

20 of the cruise ship cases are in serious or critical condition. 25% of the cruise has tested positive, this may go up as testing is still being done on the rest of the people on the cruise leaving 1,300 to be tested. Plus CDC has stated people early in the infection don't test positive , many need to be re tested once symptoms start.

I am surprised on the lack of in-depth news coverage.

The country that haven't reported cases, are due to lack of infrastructure, not lack of cases.

There have been more statics on men being harder hit, and higher rate of infected. I will research if this has been the case with other diseases before????? EDIT: sorry MEN it appears you are the weaker sex immunity wise. Where it is believed a few things fstor in, one weaker immune systems, two more likely to be taken seriously by your doctor than a woman with the same symptoms. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/1428496/

China now has 170 million people on lock down, with rest of the country facing restrictions. China is taking this very serious, and doing their ever loving best to stop this outbreak.

 

[charmedbyekkie]

Re: Wuhan virus

With China in shutdown, I think folks should be aware that this does have an impact around the world. Many parts are made in China, even if it says "Assembled in USA". My partner and I bought stuff direct from China before Chinese New Year. They normally are on holiday for only 2 weeks. But due to the virus, we still haven't received our shipment.

Many folks are experiencing this, even in the commercial sector. Companies need parts from China to build their electronics, their equipment, etc. And most of these are still held up in China, heavily delayed. A lot of projects are being delayed simply because small parts aren't coming in.



As for Singapore, 81 cases - almost all traceable, which is very reassuring. 29 already have fully recovered and discharged; only 4 in ICU; the rest are stable/improving.

Government just announced the budget for this:
- apart from paying the entire hospital bill for anyone infected
- only 10sgd to visit a clinic if you've symptoms (5sgd if you're elderly)
- 100-300sgd one-off cash payouts for adults (100sgd more for those with kids)
- rebates doubled and/or extended
- lower-income support has increased coverage as well

That's just for the individual, not including businesses and workers side of things.

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

With China in shutdown, I think folks should be aware that this does have an impact around the world. Many parts are made in China, even if it says "Assembled in USA". My partner and I bought stuff direct from China before Chinese New Year. They normally are on holiday for only 2 weeks. But due to the virus, we still haven't received our shipment.

Many folks are experiencing this, even in the commercial sector. Companies need parts from China to build their electronics, their equipment, etc. And most of these are still held up in China, heavily delayed. A lot of projects are being delayed simply because small parts aren't coming in.



As for Singapore, 81 cases - almost all traceable, which is very reassuring. 29 already have fully recovered and discharged; only 4 in ICU; the rest are stable/improving.

Government just announced the budget for this:
- apart from paying the entire hospital bill for anyone infected
- only 10sgd to visit a clinic if you've symptoms (5sgd if you're elderly)
- 100-300sgd one-off cash payouts for adults (100sgd more for those with kids)
- rebates doubled and/or extended
- lower-income support has increased coverage as well

That's just for the individual, not including businesses and workers side of things.

The world is paying attention to Singapore'.

" When will we know if that bigger fire has been ignited?

It’s worth watching Singapore. The city-state, which has a very strong public health system, was among the places hit during the 2003 SARS outbreak and has since then substantially beefed up its outbreak response capacity. "

WHO would have already labeled this a pandemic in the past.

Remember it takes 2 weeks for people to become sick. So take the last day with the highest spike in reported cases, then wait two weeks to see if there is another spike. Then we can feel comfortable with any downward trends.

 

[ParrotGenie]

Re: Wuhan virus

With China in shutdown, I think folks should be aware that this does have an impact around the world. Many parts are made in China, even if it says "Assembled in USA". My partner and I bought stuff direct from China before Chinese New Year. They normally are on holiday for only 2 weeks. But due to the virus, we still haven't received our shipment.

Many folks are experiencing this, even in the commercial sector. Companies need parts from China to build their electronics, their equipment, etc. And most of these are still held up in China, heavily delayed. A lot of projects are being delayed simply because small parts aren't coming in.



As for Singapore, 81 cases - almost all traceable, which is very reassuring. 29 already have fully recovered and discharged; only 4 in ICU; the rest are stable/improving.

Government just announced the budget for this:
- apart from paying the entire hospital bill for anyone infected
- only 10sgd to visit a clinic if you've symptoms (5sgd if you're elderly)
- 100-300sgd one-off cash payouts for adults (100sgd more for those with kids)
- rebates doubled and/or extended
- lower-income support has increased coverage as well

That's just for the individual, not including businesses and workers side of things.

Yes having the same issues as a couple large companies are not shipping periods. I placed orders over a month ago and have yet to even receive a tracking and even parts vendors in the US are now putting back-order 6 weeks plus on what use to be commonly available parts? Even through they claim that shipping would be back to normal on the 17th.

Some china wholesaler and part suppliers are still shipping as did receives some stuff yesterday. Some are completely dysfunctional at the moment. Some are back to work and starting to ship orders again. Will have a ripple affect as a result, but they are slowly returning to work and factories are reopening again.

 

[wrench13]

Re: Wuhan virus

Our company has definitely been impacted. Aside from catalog type items, most of our material is manufactured in China (Shenzhen/ Gangdong area). The actual companies that make the parts are almost up and consuming on hand raw materials, but the secondary providers, like plating and heat treating firms, have yet to resume work.

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

Things that make me suspicious...
The reported deaths, are always only a few numbers apart. .. not that likely....also the trending new cases are usually 3% variation...you should see exponential growth.....

I do hope things are coming under control.thst the rest of the world doesn't see a Coronavirus outbreak that is 20 times more deadly than other flu, if the 2% fatality rate holds, and it is not worse.
Lastly untill recently ( maybe I just can't find it) China was reporting an additional 80,000 in medical observations lockdown, but not tested yet, and 190,000 traced contacts in their big quarantine facilities they made from stadiums and such.... You put that many together in double bunk beds you are going to see numbers climb like we did on the cruise ship.

 

[SailBoat]

Re: Wuhan virus

Things that make me suspicious...
The reported deaths, are always only a few numbers apart. .. not that likely....also the trending new cases are usually 3% variation...you should see exponential growth.....

I do hope things are coming under control.thst the rest of the world doesn't see a Coronavirus outbreak that is 20 times more deadly than other flu, if the 2% fatality rate holds, and it is not worse.
Lastly untill recently ( maybe I just can't find it) China was reporting an additional 80,000 in medical observations lockdown, but not tested yet, and 190,000 traced contacts in their big quarantine facilities they made from stadiums and such.... You put that many together in double bunk beds you are going to see numbers climb like we did on the cruise ship.

I fully agree with your evaluation! Logic screams that their quarantine facilities would follow and more likely out pace what is seen on the cruise ship!

It's a nightmare monster, which is without resistances!

Going off the rails for a moment; if they continue on this course, they will have a silent Spring in the Wuhan region. Not for the lack of birds, but the lack of Humans.

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

Isn't this scary
A complete halt to the economy.
All told, the measures to contain coronavirus have resulted in reductions of 15% to 40% in output across key industrial sectors. This is likely to have wiped out a quarter or more of the country’s CO2 emissions over the past two weeks, the period when activity would normally have resumed after the Chinese new-year holiday. (See methodology below.)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysi...ily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter

And yet........ experiencing worst smog right now....

" This is illustrated by the fact that Beijing experienced its second severe smog episode of the year last week, leaving many wondering where the pollution was coming from when most cars were off the road and most businesses were shut...........
( But explained by this , hmmmm.....) As already noted above, steel blast furnaces in particular kept running throughout the extended holiday, while most power plants only shut a part of their boilers, at most.

CDC after a month has finally dropped the PIU to 52 from 60. These are not the evacuated cases. Infact they show no info on them. To be a person under investigation of the new coronavirus they must have symptom's, and have been in contact with positive cases, or recent travel history ( this is before the quarantines) there seems to be some lack of transperancy...
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

Two people from the Diamond cruise ship have passed. It's also the day of the largest death toll outside of China cases.....
RIGHT NOWTwo passengers, both Japanese nationals in their 80s, died after being taken to hospitals from the Diamond Princess.

26 cases from the cruise ship are in serious/critical condition...

 

[SailBoat]

Re: Wuhan virus

Anyone else caught the interior shots of the cargo 747's that the USA government contracted from a group in Michigan... I certainly hope that the Air Carriers didn't caught on and elect to truly switch over to cattle class (cargo class)!

Interesting system they are using as it appears that the 747 is set-up in cluster groups. I saw that a couple of more flights are either underway or will be shortly.

 

[Scott]

Re: Wuhan virus

Anyone else caught the interior shots of the cargo 747's that the USA government contracted from a group in Michigan... I certainly hope that the Air Carriers didn't caught on and elect to truly switch over to cattle class (cargo class)!

Interesting system they are using as it appears that the 747 is set-up in cluster groups. I saw that a couple of more flights are either underway or will be shortly.

The Kalitta Air cargo 747 lacks passenger windows and requires palletized seats/lavs/galleys for conversion to passenger carrier. Interestingly, the industry experimented with quick-change configurations early in the jet age. Cargoliner by night, passengers during the day. Versions of the Boeing 727 were designated "QC" (quick change) and were used by major U.S. airlines.

 

[bug_n_flock]

Re: Wuhan virus

Ah, so the lack of windows is *not* because is is "Plague Air"? Hubbs was freaked out by that for the first evacuation flight from Wuhan, and it also made me nervous. Good to know indeed.

 

[Flboy]

Re: Wuhan virus

An ugly development! The USA gets 90% of it’s ’shelf ready’ antibiotics and 80% of its compounds for drug manufacturing from—-guess—- China!
All manufacturing facilities are shut down!
Not good!