COVID-19 Virus

[charmedbyekkie]

Re: Wuhan virus

Found a really good breakdown of the WHO findings from their study of China during this time here.

Some quick highlights of this already highlighted findings:

When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78-85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person. Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of spread. Most of the 2,055 infected hospital workers were either infected at home or in the early phase of the outbreak in Wuhan when hospital safeguards were not raised yet.

The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid.

An examination of 44,672 infected people in China showed a fatality rate of 3.4%. Fatality is strongly influenced by age, pre-existing conditions, gender, and especially the response of the health care system. All fatality figures reflect the state of affairs in China up to 17 February, and everything could be quite different in the future elsewhere.... China also tested various treatment methods for the unknown disease and the most successful ones were implemented nationwide. Thanks to this response, the fatality rate in China is now lower than a month ago.

Gender: Women catch the disease just as often as men. But only 2.8% of Chinese women who were infected died from the disease, while 4.7% of the infected men died.

The new virus is genetically 96% identical to a known coronavirus in bats and 86-92% identical to a coronavirus in pangolin. Therefore, the transmission of a mutated virus from animals to humans is the most likely cause of the appearance of the new virus.

Since the end of January, the number of new coronavirus diagnoses in China has been steadily declining (shown here as a graph) with now only 329 new diagnoses within the last day - one month ago it was around 3,000 a day. "This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real," the report says. The authors conclude this from their own experience on site, declining hospital visits in the affected regions, the increasing number of unoccupied hospital beds, and the problems of Chinese scientists to recruit enough newly infected for the clinical studies of the numerous drug trials. Here is the relevant part of the press conference about the decline assessment.

One of the important reasons for containing the outbreak is that China is interviewing all infected people nationwide about their contact persons and then tests those. There are 1,800 teams in Wuhan to do this, each with at least 5 people. But the effort outside of Wuhan is also big. In Shenzhen, for example, the infected named 2,842 contact persons, all of whom were found, testing is now completed for 2,240, and 2.8% of those had contracted the virus. In Sichuan province, 25,493 contact persons were named, 25,347 (99%) were found, 23,178 have already been examined and 0.9% of them were infected. In the province of Guangdong, 9,939 contacts were named, all found, 7,765 are already examined and 4.8% of them were infected. That means: If you have direct personal contact with an infected person, the probability of infection is between 1% and 5%.

"China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic. In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history. China’s uncompromising and rigorous use of non-pharmaceutical measures to contain transmission of the COVID-19 virus in multiple settings provides vital lessons for the global response. This rather unique and unprecedented public health response in China reversed the escalating cases in both Hubei, where there has been widespread community transmission, and in the importation provinces, where family clusters appear to have driven the outbreak."

"Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures."

 

[Scott]

Re: Wuhan virus

Found a really good breakdown of the WHO findings from their study of China during this time here.

Some quick highlights of this already highlighted findings:

When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78-85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person. Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of spread. Most of the 2,055 infected hospital workers were either infected at home or in the early phase of the outbreak in Wuhan when hospital safeguards were not raised yet.

The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid.

One of the important reasons for containing the outbreak is that China is interviewing all infected people nationwide about their contact persons and then tests those. There are 1,800 teams in Wuhan to do this, each with at least 5 people. But the effort outside of Wuhan is also big. In Shenzhen, for example, the infected named 2,842 contact persons, all of whom were found, testing is now completed for 2,240, and 2.8% of those had contracted the virus. In Sichuan province, 25,493 contact persons were named, 25,347 (99%) were found, 23,178 have already been examined and 0.9% of them were infected. In the province of Guangdong, 9,939 contacts were named, all found, 7,765 are already examined and 4.8% of them were infected. That means: If you have direct personal contact with an infected person, the probability of infection is between 1% and 5%.

"China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic. In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history. China’s uncompromising and rigorous use of non-pharmaceutical measures to contain transmission of the COVID-19 virus in multiple settings provides vital lessons for the global response. This rather unique and unprecedented public health response in China reversed the escalating cases in both Hubei, where there has been widespread community transmission, and in the importation provinces, where family clusters appear to have driven the outbreak."

"Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures."

Thank you, extremely informative!!

 

[Cardinal]

Re: Wuhan virus

As someone who fly's 35 to 47 weeks a year both domestically and all over the world for the last 20 years (until the last couple when I semi retired)

Sent from my SM-T830 Galaxy Tab S4 using Tapatalk

Wow! That is a lot of flying. I have probably flown only around 47 times in the last 20 years. Have not kept count but guessing.

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

Thank you Charmedbyekkie!
China did a fast and great war to stop the virus spread. Singapore also did an amazing job of tracking contacts of people infected, and providing real time numbers. The United States is not keeping up with this, at this point.

" Treating people on a case-by-case basis would not be enough – to deal with pandemics in urban settings, governments would have to mobilise resources as if they were at war, quarantining those showing signs of the disease, keeping minor cases separate to those suffering more serious illness, and limiting people’s movements so the disease would burn itself out. "

We need to get on this! Close Schools in towns with more than 2 cases, Nationwide we need to stop all events with crowds.

U.S. In the midst of propaganda to calm people, spoon feeding cherry picker data. Many health officials calling for that to stop a d to treat the American public like grown ups. Think actively, ask questions, do you own research, from millit sources.

This isn't a highly fatal disease, but the numbers will pile up if a large portion get infected. Plus the large number that will need some hospital care.

For Bill_e, and Jasmin333
I like airborne too!!! Soldout in my town at all locations....
Health and nutrition plays a huge role in our immune system! As does good sleep! Stress wreaks terrific havoc on our bodies..
Excerise even light excerise boosts immunity, as does being outside and getting a little natural vitamin D.

 

[SailBoat]

Re: Wuhan virus

If one believes all that is presented by the National News Media, we are lead to believe that everything is controlled by the Federal Government in the US. NOT TRUE! This country is: The United States of America and not the Federal Government of America.

Although there is much that the National Government can do, there are limits. As you recall, a State can choose not to provide Information regarding the Status of illness in that State.

Unlike China, where its national government can shutdown the county, regions, cities, manufacturing facilities, schools, market, force people to stay in their homes, etc, etc, etc... They control it all and as a result lockdown their country. This is also true for many of the other effected countries.

What our National Government can do, it is doing. Remember when the US shutdown the travel between China and the US. Did, you hear that the US will no longer except infected citizens that choose to travel on international cruse ships and become sick!

The State of Michigan opened its Emergency Operations Facility at the end of last week. Local schools are enacting their Emergency Programs and will close if a case appears. Cities are reviewing their plans and upgrading them.

So, it's not like nothing is happening, as it is happening at the State level and thus not reported in the National News, because they're not interested in such lowly news.

 

[charmedbyekkie]

Re: Wuhan virus

Thank you Charmedbyekkie!
China did a fast and great war to stop the virus spread. Singapore also did an amazing job of tracking contacts of people infected, and providing real time numbers. The United States is not keeping up with this, at this point.

" Treating people on a case-by-case basis would not be enough — to deal with pandemics in urban settings, governments would have to mobilise resources as if they were at war, quarantining those showing signs of the disease, keeping minor cases separate to those suffering more serious illness, and limiting people’s movements so the disease would burn itself out. "

We need to get on this! Close Schools in towns with more than 2 cases, Nationwide we need to stop all events with crowds.

Singapore did have some cases in a few schools. One school was a teacher, another school was a student. Note that the schools did not have more than 1 infected per school.

In both cases, the schools were not closed. Full stop. Period. The schools were only disinfected over the weekend and reopened the following Monday.

The classmates of the student were, however, given 'stay-at-home' orders (quarantine oneself at home for 14 days) and tested for the virus.

The virus has not spread within or from those schools.

The virus has, however, been transmitted via religious gatherings (in which food is shared) and in family gatherings (also extremely close contact).



Just keep basic hygiene practices - wash your hands before touching your face or eating, use your elbow for coughing and sneezing and yawning, etc. And regularly disinfect surfaces, from tables to handphones.

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

WHO chief says new virus much deadlier than flu, but less transmissible
World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Tuesday that data has shown the new coronavirus disease to be considerably deadlier than the usual seasonal flu, but he added that it also appears to spread less easily.

I've reported on this before... Now more concerned since WHO is also reporting this.
Current calling in at 3.5% fatality..
It takes a long time for cases to resolve and outcomes to be known.
SARS and MERS with both new coronavirus and they had 10% , and 30% fatality respectively,
I think this new virus might come closer to SARS when we know more, or as always might be much less when we know more.

Definitely all people should actively practice good hygiene, comply with government guidance.

And US need to smp up testing. Florida I thi k will announce 2 more cases today, with 6 more close contacts to be tested and likely infrcted... as of yesterday the state had only tested 24 people in the whole state.....

 

[clark_conure]

Re: Wuhan virus

The WHO is just an old rock band, sure they had some hits....


Yes this is a joke...


I prefer the CDC more.

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

I watched world news they didn't cover in depth
Here are our current #s
The United States now has a total of 118 cases: 70 domestic and 48 repatriated (45 from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, and 3 from Wuhan, China). Domestic cases by state:
27 in Washington State (including 9 deaths)
20 in California
4 in Illinois
3 in Florida
3 in Oregon
2 in Arizona
2 in Georgia
2 in Massachusetts
2 in New York
2 in Rhode Island
1 in New Hampshire
1 in North Carolina
1 in Wisconsin
( Florida 16 pending)

 

[noodles123]

Re: Wuhan virus

WHO chief says new virus much deadlier than flu, but less transmissible
World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Tuesday that data has shown the new coronavirus disease to be considerably deadlier than the usual seasonal flu, but he added that it also appears to spread less easily.

I've reported on this before... Now more concerned since WHO is also reporting this.
Current calling in at 3.5% fatality..
It takes a long time for cases to resolve and outcomes to be known.
SARS and MERS with both new coronavirus and they had 10% , and 30% fatality respectively,
I think this new virus might come closer to SARS when we know more, or as always might be much less when we know more.

Definitely all people should actively practice good hygiene, comply with government guidance.

And US need to smp up testing. Florida I thi k will announce 2 more cases today, with 6 more close contacts to be tested and likely infrcted... as of yesterday the state had only tested 24 people in the whole state.....

Numerous sources say that it is actually more contagious than the flu and can live up to 9 days on surfaces in ideal conditions (as opposed to the flu, which is 2-3 days on comparable surfaces)...It is more deadly and more contagious..here is one...(not the most legit-- but not wrong either) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/yes-worse-than-flu-busting-coronavirus-myths-covid-19

and this-- stating that it is more contagious (among other sources confirming that)
https://www.yalemedicine.org/stories/2019-novel-coronavirus/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who...-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

Medical professionals , and the actual new name of this virus is
SARS-Cov-2
Sever Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus #2

Maybe they just don't want to say tht on the news.
If it effects as many people as seasonal influenza, and you take the annual deaths from that , we could see

SARS-CoV-2 has a 2% fatality ( now saying 3.5%) 20 times that of the flu, we could be looking at
1,538,300 deaths!!!! Plan for the worst.....sure hope that's not how things play out...

" What does this illness look like? I’ve heard some people compare it to the flu.

No, it’s different from flu. It’s a lung disease, not a stuffy nose disease. Ninety 90 percent of people get a fever, 80 percent get a dry cough, and then it drops down to 30 percent get shortness of breath and malaise — you know, being tired. "
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/03/...errer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

This quote struck a chill on my heart.

" Businesswoman Bian Jingjing has a message about the coronavirus for the world: be more prepared. "

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/01/bus...eijing-over-coronavirus-says-be-prepared.html

 

[Jen5200]

Re: Wuhan virus

I’m now wishing that I had gotten myself more organized and purchased toilet paper last week....apparently it’s a pretty scarce commodity in WA now. I had stocked up on all the of the creatures’ food, but wasn’t very diligent about the people stuff. I will need to get on that this weekend. I work in a busy public library, and I’m starting to hear much more discussion about the virus. It hadn’t really been a hot topic here up until the past week.

 

[Laurasea]

Re: Wuhan virus

Jen5200,
Sorry if forgotten you were Washington State! Hopefully they will catch up with the restocking soon. My Walmart did, it said we are prepared for your emergency buying, they put out huge flats of iteams most commonly bought. Tho low on soap and sanitizer ( out) as with hurricanes theses weren't typically bought,

So glad you were ready with pet stuff! Stay safe!!! Stay well!! Stay strong!

 

[ctwo]

Re: Wuhan virus

The Isle of Man TT is a motorcycle race and is considered one of the most dangerous sporting events one can participate in. People who race in it are arguably considered to be clinically insane. The average death rate there is ~1%.

The WHO said yesterday that the global mortality rate from COVID-19 is 3.4% so far.

 

[dhraiden]

Re: Wuhan virus

All I can say is - get your information from health officials and authorities. The numbers are in flux, but expected to change - as more people get tested, more people will test positive. First it was thought to be more infectious (vs SARS/MERS etc) but less lethal, now it seems the opposite it true, as quarantines take place, preventative measures are taken up, but the most severe extent of fatalities is seen in countries where the populace has limited access to quality health-care.

The most important thing you can do is wash your hands regularly, avoid crowds, don't touch your face/eyes/nose/mouth etc when outside and be a bit more stringent about cleanliness in your work-spaces and at home (wipe down doorknobs, keyboards, etc with disinfecting wipes and so on). If you have any underlying health issues, especially of the respiratory kind, take more caution, merely for caution's sake. Needlessly taking your body with additional anxiety (stress) only compromises the body's immune response, so be prepared but don't lose your heads.


I'm in NYC, having just got back from Japan (more than two weeks ago) and have taken every precaution not to expose my aging parents nor people around me. But I can drive, never take subways or public transit and essentially live and work alone (apart from my wife). I'm not freaking out, b/c that won't help anything. Mostly, I worry for the people who are careless about NOT exposing the weaker people around them (elderly relatives, young infants, etc). Think about others and be considerate.

 

[Inger]

Re: Wuhan virus

I’m now wishing that I had gotten myself more organized and purchased toilet paper last week....apparently it’s a pretty scarce commodity in WA now. I had stocked up on all the of the creatures’ food, but wasn’t very diligent about the people stuff. I will need to get on that this weekend. I work in a busy public library, and I’m starting to hear much more discussion about the virus. It hadn’t really been a hot topic here up until the past week.

The bottled water and toilet paper situation really confuses me! I get the bleach, hand sanitizer, etc. but we have great drinking water here and WHY IS EVERYONE BUYING ALL OF THE TOILET PAPER?

Oh and the 10 Fred Meyer stores nearest my work (Renton) are all out of bamboo plants. Not sure that's related but it's a fun fact. Maybe people want to buy plants to oxygenate the homes they aren't leaving for the next 6 months? Haha

 

[Jen5200]

Re: Wuhan virus

I’m now wishing that I had gotten myself more organized and purchased toilet paper last week....apparently it’s a pretty scarce commodity in WA now. I had stocked up on all the of the creatures’ food, but wasn’t very diligent about the people stuff. I will need to get on that this weekend. I work in a busy public library, and I’m starting to hear much more discussion about the virus. It hadn’t really been a hot topic here up until the past week.

The bottled water and toilet paper situation really confuses me! I get the bleach, hand sanitizer, etc. but we have great drinking water here and WHY IS EVERYONE BUYING ALL OF THE TOILET PAPER?

Oh and the 10 Fred Meyer stores nearest my work (Renton) are all out of bamboo plants. Not sure that's related but it's a fun fact. Maybe people want to buy plants to oxygenate the homes they aren't leaving for the next 6 months? Haha

Surprised me too . A year’s worth of toilet paper and water is NOT what I would have stocked up on..... Food would be higher on my list lol. Sold out of bamboo plants????? That made me smile.

 

[ctwo]

Re: Wuhan virus

Need tissue to wipe your nose and cough into.

 

[noodles123]

Re: Wuhan virus

I think it is because there were TP shortages in other countries, so people are probably trying to avoid that.